The training wheels are off, you can pack your own lunch and you can see PG-13 movies. You’re old enough for the truth.

Sports are unpredictable. Yeah, I said it.

In a world where you can bet on anything from the winner of the Preakness to the number of catches by a backup tight end, where you can read “expert analysis” on where an offensive lineman from Southeastern North Dakota Tech will go in the seventh round, where players use binoculars and cameras to steal signs, where Charles Barkley gets paid to predict who will win the NBA Finals (and people listen to him), where fantasy sports leagues are more popular than presidential elections, we’re led to believe that there are people out there who know what is going to happen.

But the truth is, unless that person is telling you that the Stanford women’s tennis team is going to win its next home match, or it’s Biff Tannen with an early 21st-century sports almanac, there is a chance that person will be wrong.

Of course, if you’re a sports fan, you probably enjoy trying to predict what will happen in sporting events. It’s part of the fun to predict a hot streak for Brian Roberts at the beginning of the year and get rewarded on your fantasy team, as much as it’s fun to laugh at the guy who starts Chien-Ming Wang (no comment on which of those two was me).

If you’re rocking a playoff beard and your weekends revolve around your team’s playoff games, it’s part of being a fan to predict a sweep for your team and rub it in the faces of opposing fans when you’re right (or pretend not to have said anything when you’re wrong).

And most sports fans watch some kind of sports shows and/or read about sports in some magazine or website. Apart from being a great way to put off that 10-page paper or job application, these forms of sports media provide a great way to learn more about the sports you love, while also helping you whip out that crazy tidbit at a party that shows how knowledgeable (or horribly pathetic) you are.

One of the best segments on sports TV shows is where the experts predict things about sports, and the same goes for sports prediction columns. Something about being able to argue with former players-turned-analysts for their wrong opinions – or laud the brilliance of the same players when they pick your team – just gets everyone excited. Plus, it’s a lot easier to skim a column with a nice, easy-to-read chart of predictions than trudge through huge blocks of text (hey, we never really outgrow our first-grade love of picture books).

The thing about these great predictions is that they mean about as much as your cousin who says, “Ooh, Kobe is cute, and I like those uniforms. Go Lakers!” Sure, theoretically people who write and talk about sports for a living have better information and can more accurately predict what will happen. But in reality, for every expert that correctly predicted Canadiens vs. Flyers, there are thousands that had the Capitals winning the Stanley Cup, UTEP over Butler in the first round and the Spurs sweeping the Suns.

And how can you blame them? The players themselves can’t tell you what’s going to happen beforehand – Joe Namath guarantees aside – so how could anyone else? The only difference between the casual fan and the “expert” is that the expert needs to form an opinion to keep his/her job.

Case in point: I’m an Angels fan, and I was reading an ESPN story about the reason why the Angels swept the A’s this weekend. I was skeptical but curious at first – one reason to go from 3-10 in their last 13 to a three-game sweep? What could it be? The two complete game shutouts by starting pitchers? The two home runs and five RBIs in a game by Kendry Morales? Nope. It was moving Howie Kendrick from the bottom of the order up to second.

I had to laugh. There’s no way one small lineup change could be “the difference,” especially when the key to the series was clearly pitching. And the article wasn’t even bad. It made a fairly compelling argument, but by the end I was only thinking one thing – sportswriters really jump to conclusions.

In reality, they have to. When it’s your job to analyze sports, you have to come up with something that the folks at home can’t just spot easily. So last night’s win has to be the result of one player not wanting it or a great coaching move. There’s no chance in sports analysis.

No one is immune to it either. Pick your favorite play-by-play man, SportsCenter anchor, analyst or columnist. I can guarantee that person has spent days discussing LeBron’s elbow or Steve Bartman or any of the millions of other scapegoats people create to explain their team’s failures.

The fact is, we just don’t know what’s going to happen in sports. And that’s why sports are so great.

Jacob Jaffe thinks Kobe’s super cute socks indicate a Lakers win on Wednesday. Meet up with him at Sunsplash via [email protected] to hear more fascinating tidbits.