Chen: The fan’s guide to the 2014 Stanford football season

Aug. 30, 2014, 12:28 a.m.

College football came back Thursday night. Stanford football comes back Saturday afternoon. At long last, the eight-month wait — it’s felt like eight years — is finally over.

The Daily’s coverage is back, too, bringing you position previews, season predictions and pre-game chatter. Though Saturday’s contest against UC-Davis shouldn’t be much more than a tune-up game before the Trojans come next week, it still is the season opener. So to celebrate the return of everything Cardinal — the power running game, the David Shaw game-day face and the newly coined “intellectual brutality” — I leave you with some final thoughts to chew on as the Cardinal’s 2014 season gets underway.

Good vibes

I feel great about the amount of attention that Stanford is getting in the media entering the season. Most (smart) people who aren’t picking the Cardinal to win the Pac-12 made the choice mainly based on Stanford’s tough schedule, not because they doubt the Cardinal’s staying power after four consecutive BCS bowls. The national perception of Stanford football is right in the Cardinal’s comfort zone: respected, but not hyped.

Remember how nervous you were during 2011? It was irrational. Stanford had Andrew Luck and three other All-Americans on offense, but fans were nervous during games because the Cardinal were leading by only 20 instead of 40. The hype surrounding that season made it seem like Stanford should have scored 50 points every game. And in 2012, fans saw the opposite side of the spectrum. The target was removed from Stanford’s back, but there was a sense of insecurity for at least the first half of the season as the Cardinal struggled to find its identity on offense. The 2013 season brought back memories of 2011 — it was stressful to be a Stanford fan, hearing that the Cardinal were preseason No. 4 and in national championship conversations.

Now, in 2014, a happy medium exists. Ranked just outside of the top ten in preseason polls, Stanford doesn’t have a huge target on its back like it did in 2011 and 2013, but the program still knows its identity much better than it did two years ago. And don’t forget that Shaw, if he needs to, plays the “no-one-believes-in-us” motivation card as well as any coach in the nation.

If you want an analogy, Stanford football is basically inside linebacker A.J. Tarpley. The same way that Tarpley never gets credited but always ends up at the right place at the right time to make a big tackle, Stanford football is always ruled out by the media in preseason polls but nevertheless finds its way to a BCS bowl (or whatever the equivalent is these days).

Good byes

Stanford’s schedule this season is scary, though my editor Michael Peterson made a good case for why the schedule isn’t as brutal as it could be.

One of the more underrated positives of the schedule, I think, is the placement of the two bye weeks. The first bye is before a four-game stretch that includes road games at Washington, Notre Dame and Arizona State, which is huge in terms of giving Stanford extra time to prepare and heal early-season injuries. The second bye is after Oregon in early November. Though it’d be better to have a bye before that game, Stanford will be coming off an emotional high (or low) after the showdown in Eugene, so it will certainly be beneficial to have an extra week heading into the home stretch of the season.

Compare that to last year’s unenviable timing: A useless bye in the opening week of college football and a pseudo bye due to the Thursday night game against Oregon.

The next breakout player

Last year I picked wide receiver Devon Cajuste to break out, and he certainly blew away everyone’s expectations. I’m going to go to the other side of the ball this time to choose outside linebacker James Vaughters. If you’ve been following Stanford football closely for the last two seasons, you know how much Shaw has talked up Vaughters — he called him a “freight train” in the 2012 preseason. It’s not that Vaughters has been playing poorly (he saw action in 13 games as a true freshman and played in every game in his sophomore and junior seasons), but you definitely get the feeling that the coaching staff expected more out of him given his talent. To be fair, Vaughters had to transition from the outside to inside in 2012 and then back to the outside last season, so he’s had to make some tough adjustments.

I think this season is Vaughters’ time to shine; he won’t match Trent Murphy’s production, but he’ll be more than just a contributor.

Still unproven on the road

I still don’t trust the Cardinal offense away from Stanford Stadium. I know quarterback Kevin Hogan & Co. put on a masterpiece in the Pac-12 Title Game, but their performances at Utah, Oregon State and USC give me nightmares. The offense turned the ball over seven times between those three games, and every Stanford fan went bald by tearing a hair out for each three-and-out the Cardinal had.

I’m confident that the talented offensive line will gel by the end of the season, but can they gel by Sept. 24, when they have to overcome 70,000 rabid fans at Husky Stadium? That could be a huge factor in determining Stanford’s record on the road. 

Don’t turn against Hogan

This is my No. 1 advice for fans who want to enjoy the 2014 season: Be patient with Kevin Hogan. He has two deadly weapons in Ty Montgomery and Devon Cajuste and upcoming playmakers at the tight end position, but the improvement in the Cardinal’s passing game will most likely not happen overnight. People sometimes forget that last year was Hogan’s first full season, and while he did make quite a few mistakes, all of them were part of the natural learning curve.

Also, don’t freak out if Hogan doesn’t run as much this season. If he’s running less but the offense is moving the chains well, it’s probably a good sign because it means he’s going through his reads to find the open receivers instead of taking off. Keep in mind, Luck’s running production significantly decreased from 2010 to 2011 — it’s the natural evolution of a college football quarterback. 

Five predictions:

I really shouldn’t do this after going 8-5 in my game predictions last year, but like Cal football, I’m hoping to turn the page:

1)   Stanford will still own the nation’s longest winning streak at home by the end of the season.

2)   Stanford wins at Washington, but loses at Arizona State.

3)   The running back will actually be by committee this year.

4)   A.J. Tarpley will record over 110 tackles. He had 93 last season.

5)   Contrary to “expert” opinion, Hogan will not be drafted in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft. (Sorry, I want to be guaranteed to go 1-for-5.)

And finally…

It’s the inaugural season of the College Football Playoffs, so just sit back and be a college football fan in one of the most exciting times to be a college football fan. I leave you with this:

 

Contact George Chen at gchen15 ‘at’ stanford.edu.

George Chen is a senior staff writer at The Stanford Daily who writes football, football and more football. Previously he worked at The Daily as the President and Editor in Chief, Executive Editor, Managing Editor of Sports, the football beat reporter and a sports desk editor. George also co-authored The Daily's recent book documenting the rise of Stanford football, "Rags to Roses." He is a senior from Painted Post, NY majoring in Biology. To contact him, please email at [email protected].

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