Stanford refuses to overlook Oregon with Pac-12 North on the line

Nov. 13, 2015, 3:26 a.m.

Stanford football has only been 7-0 in conference play twice before in program history.

The last such time was in 2011, when the Cardinal started 9-0 overall and 7-0 in Pac-12 play. And Stanford fans don’t need to be reminded of what happened next — Oregon came to The Farm, stunned Stanford 53-30 and likely knocked the Cardinal out of the national title game in Andrew Luck’s final collegiate season.

Though the 2015 edition of the Stanford-Oregon rivalry lacks the titanic matchup value that some of those gladiatorial clashes of the early 2010s offered, make no mistake: Oregon still has lots left to play for on Saturday when the Ducks (6-3, 4-2 Pac-12) visit the No. 7 Cardinal (8-1, 7-0).

Although the Ducks are far out of national title consideration, they can still stay alive in the Pac-12 race with a win over Stanford; kicking Stanford out of national title contention again would just be the cherry on top. Meanwhile, a Stanford win would officially clinch the Pac-12 North title for the Cardinal and inch them one step closer to the College Football Playoff.

Not that they’re looking that far ahead.

The message from Stanford’s players has been unanimous: Win the Pac-12 first — that’s what’s in their control — and just let the Playoff picture unfold around them.

“The last four years, the winner of this game has won the Pac-12 Championship, so it’s everything,” said fifth-year senior outside linebacker Kevin Anderson. “For us, the ultimate goal is to win the Pac-12, and we have an opportunity to do that on Saturday, so this game’s huge.”

Even though Oregon has had one of its toughest seasons in recent memory (with home losses to Washington State and Utah already in the books), the Ducks are peaking at the right time, with quarterback Vernon Adams healthy and re-establishing the identity of Oregon’s patented “blur” offense. The Cardinal aren’t fooled by the Ducks’ poor record; they’re expecting a tough, hard-fought game with the Pac-12 North at stake.

“Whether there’s anything riding on this game or not, in our minds it’s Stanford-Oregon,” said head coach David Shaw. “There could be everything on the line; there could be nothing on the line. This is a physical, fast game where both teams are going to walk off the field knowing they played a hard football game.”

For the first time in a long time, the battle between Stanford’s offense and Oregon’s defense might overshadow the battle on the other side of the ball.

This year, it’s Stanford — not Oregon — that leads the Pac-12 in scoring offense during conference play, as the Cardinal have averaged 42.4 points per game on the back of a resurgent season from the offensive line and timely throws from quarterback Kevin Hogan — the Cardinal also lead the conference in third-down conversions.

Meanwhile, the Ducks enter the game having regressed on defense more than anybody could have expected over the course of one offseason: After having fielded the No. 2 defense in the conference last season, Oregon ranks dead last in both scoring defense and passing defense this season, setting the stage for another prolific effort from the Stanford offense.

With that said, Oregon is coming off a decent defensive performance against Cal, in which it held the high-flying Bears offense to just 10 points in the first half and 28 overall, and Shaw isn’t willing to write off the Ducks’ defense yet.

“I just think they’re playing better [recently],” he said. “I know they’ve made some changes to the secondary. They’ve got size and length on one corner and speed on the other corner. They’ve got athletic safeties.”

Given Stanford’s run-first offensive identity, this game might well come down to how well Oregon’s front seven can hold up to Christian McCaffrey, Remound Wright and Stanford’s rushing attack. Although the Ducks enter the game sixth in the conference in rushing defense, they have also allowed 273 yards on the ground to Utah and 344 to Arizona State at points this season as well, setting a good precedent for Stanford’s runners.

Stanford will likely need to keep moving the chains on the ground and hold the ball for as long as possible to keep the ball out of the hands of Oregon’s dangerous offensive attack.

Although the Cardinal lead the conference in third-down defense and are second in red-zone defense, they likely haven’t faced an offense like Oregon’s yet this season, and — with due respect to scout-team quarterback Jay Tyler — also haven’t seen a quarterback that can be as dynamic as Adams.

“There’s a lot of athletic quarterbacks,” Shaw said. “This guy is in his own category.”

“That puts a lot of pressure on the defensive backs to cover for that long; that puts a lot of pressure on the guys chasing him,” he added. “They think they have him, then they miss him. Then they get another opportunity on the same play sometimes, then they miss him again.”

Adams might as well wear the name “Houdini” on his back — he’s been a master escape artist this season, improvising to keep plays alive and making crucial throws long after plays were thought to be over in order to keep the Ducks clawing at opposing defenses. (“Like improvizational jazz,” Shaw says.) Stanford’s defenders have emphasized the importance of playing sound contain and wrapping up tackles, but that’s much easier said than done.

And even if they can limit Adams, they’ve still got to account for running back Royce Freeman, who might well be the hardest runner to bring down in the conference.

“That guy’s a beast,” Anderson said. “I remember last year, trying to tackle him and not being able to because he’s so big and strong. All he’s done is gotten bigger and stronger.”

As inconsistent as Oregon’s defense has been, the rushing offense has never faded — Oregon still leads the conference with over 300 yards on the ground per game. Luckily for the Cardinal, the linebacking corps is getting healthy at the right time — with both Anderson and Noor Davis at full go on Saturday — meaning that Stanford likely won’t be lacking for depth.

But the challenge of reining the Ducks in still remains as daunting as it has ever been.

“Freeman is a big, physical, bruising back, but at the same time, he’s got breakaway speed also,” Shaw said. “He can make people miss in the open field; he can break tackles. He himself is a game-changer. Vernon Adams coming back healthy only accentuates that, and now you have two guys in particular that are really, really dangerous.”

In a game likely to be chock-full of offense that will produce a score more akin to a basketball game than a football game, it might very well come down to which defense can limit the damage the most.

And if the numbers are any indication, Stanford might well have the edge on Saturday, playing at home with title aspirations on the line.

But regardless of what the numbers might say, the Cardinal certainly aren’t ready to overlook the Ducks. Not with how much is at stake — for the fifth-year seniors on this team, the memories of the 2011 disappointment undoubtedly remain fresh.

“We’ve got a little bit of a rivalry going here,” said senior receiver Michael Rector. “I think in the past few years since they started the Pac-12 it’s been Oregon, Stanford, Stanford, Oregon. This year’s going to be a big one for us. This game’s going to be a big one for us. We’re going to be ready when it comes.”

 

Contact Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu.

Do-Hyoung Park '16, M.S. '17 is the Minnesota Twins beat reporter at MLB.com, having somehow ensured that his endless hours sunk into The Daily became a shockingly viable career. He was previously the Chief Operating Officer and Business Manager at The Stanford Daily for FY17-18. He also covered Stanford football and baseball for five seasons as a student and served two terms as sports editor and four terms on the copy desk. He was also a color commentator for KZSU 90.1 FM's football broadcast team for the 2015-16 Rose Bowl season.

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