No. 7 Stanford (8-1, 7-0 Pac-12) comes into its next game as the undisputed leader of the Pac-12 North and with one of the best offenses in the conference, averaging 37.1 points per game. Its opponent, Oregon (6-3, 4-2), boasts the best offense in the conference with 42.2 points per game, but also the worst defense in the conference in terms of points allowed per game (currently 37.2). This year, Stanford has obliterated weak defenses, and Oregon might be the weakest that Stanford will face this year. Will Saturday’s matchup be more of the same, or is Oregon going to surprise the nation with a strong defensive showing?
Olivia Hummer: Let’s face it: Oregon has looked nothing like the powerhouse team of past seasons. Sure, after starting the season 3-3, the Ducks are riding a three-game win streak, but their defense also gave up a school-record 742 yards to Arizona State just two weeks ago. Last week against Cal, the defense stepped up and limited star quarterback Jared Goff to his lowest completion rate this season (18-of-41), but he still managed to rack up 329 passing yards and 2 touchdowns in Oregon’s 44-28 victory.
Unless Oregon’s defense improves exponentially before Saturday’s game, I can’t see it being much of a challenge for Stanford’s current offense. So far, Stanford has made short work of weak defenses, putting up 30 or more points in every game except the season-opener against Northwestern.
Plus the Cardinal offense is looking stronger and more diversified than it has all season. In the past two weeks, Hogan has reestablished himself as a threat on the ground as well as through the air, and between McCaffrey, Sanders and Love, the rush attack has been nearly unstoppable.
Regardless of Oregon’s performance, Stanford knows the stakes of this week’s matchup are high: With a win, it clinches the Pac-12 North, and a loss shatters any hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff. The Cardinal will be far from complacent, and with the prolific Cardinal offense keyed in for a victory, the Oregon defense will be hard-pressed to stop them.
Do-Hyoung Park: Yes, it’s a rivalry game. Yes, it’s a game that’s been tightly contested in years past. But no, Oregon’s defense isn’t going to surprise anybody — especially not this Saturday. From both a statistical standpoint and by the eye test, the Ducks’ defense has just been terrible in a way that not even the biggest Oregon downers could have expected at the start of the year.
The secondary takes awful routes to ball-carriers, and even when those defensive backs reach the ball-carriers in space, it’s basically a coin flip as to whether they can actually finish off the tackles or not (this is where Bryce Love and Christian McCaffrey should have their ears perking up). Oregon is dead last in the conference in passing yards allowed per game — by a 30-yard margin — and ranks in the bottom five in opposing yards per rush. Now, it’s one thing if Oregon has the talent in the secondary to mark Stanford’s receivers in tight man coverage and dedicate safeties to crashing Christian McCaffrey (like Washington State and Washington did), but the Ducks’ secondary is just too much of a liability for Kevin Hogan not to have a huge game if that happens.
And more than anything else, this defense won’t be able to stay off the field. Although Oregon is a fairly middling defense on third downs (41.4 percent converted), Stanford’s offensive line will be the toughest challenge this defense will have faced all season in crucial situations. As if that wasn’t enough, Stanford’s third-down defense tops the conference, meaning that even when Oregon’s defense gets off the field, it likely won’t be for long. And Stanford’s poised to take full advantage.
Sandip Srinivas: Well, my colleagues pretty much covered all the bases here. The weak Oregon secondary spells nightmare for the Ducks, and Kevin Hogan is bound to have an incredible day in the air. And, if Oregon isn’t careful, this one could be put away pretty early.
When playing at home this season, Stanford’s offense has been unstoppable, especially early in the game. In the Cardinal’s four home games this year, they have outscored their opponents 89-20 in the first half. That’s an average lead of 17.25 points at halftime, and we’ve seen this year that if Stanford gets up by two touchdowns, that’s pretty much the end of the game.
If the Oregon defense has even a glimpse of hope, it would, interestingly enough, come from its offense. Quarterback Vernon Adams has been one of the best players in the conference over the last two weeks, and a fully healthy Adams will be a tough test for the Stanford secondary. If the Ducks’ offense is able to get some early scores, there won’t be as much pressure on the defense to stop Stanford on offense multiple times (which, again, doesn’t seem like a huge possibility). Adams and the Ducks would love for this to turn into a barn-burner (see Oregon vs. ASU from two weeks ago). However, if the Stanford defense takes that option off the table, it might get ugly for Oregon.
Contact Olivia Hummer at ohummer ‘at’ stanford.edu, Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu and Sandip Srinivas at sandips ‘at’ stanford.edu.