Fisher: Avoidable loss dampens spirits, postseason aspirations

Nov. 17, 2013, 11:38 p.m.

This one hurt a lot. To me, it hurt a lot more than any other loss I’ve witnessed in my four years watching Stanford football. I have to go back to my Philadelphia Eagles’ Super Bowl loss in 2005 to remember feeling so badly after a football game.

I can’t help but be reminded of a quote from Stanford women’s volleyball coach John Dunning’s postgame press conference after a loss to — ironically — USC earlier this year.

“I’m angry because I didn’t think it had to end up this way,” Dunning said. “I have a lot of belief and confidence in our team. I’m going to have to get over the anger part of it, I guess.”

Doesn’t that sum it up well? It certainly didn’t have to end up the way it did Saturday night. Stanford played badly — and give the Trojans credit for showing up — but there were so many opportunities for the Cardinal to score enough points to survive.

The statistic that best describes what happened is red-zone efficiency: Stanford managed only 10 points in four red-zone trips while USC put up 17 points in three chances. That was the game right there.

Breaking down Stanford’s four red-zone opportunities is borderline infuriating. Besides the one touchdown, nothing went well. Even Stanford’s field goal came in perplexing fashion. Who throws a slant short of the goal line without a timeout and 20 seconds left in the half? Had junior wide receiver Ty Montgomery caught the pass, Stanford may have run out of time before getting a field goal off.

The two empty possessions were even worse. I’ll never understand why head coach David Shaw decided to go to the Wildcat on first-and-goal at the 6. Then, he chose the only Wildcat play Stanford has without putting Montgomery or junior wide receiver Kelsey Young in motion, and Gaffney was dead in the water.

Somehow it got even worse on third down. Shaw thought he could run the exact same slant play (only flipped) that didn’t work right before halftime, and USC free safety Dion Bailey made him pay. Bailey said in the postgame press conference that as soon as he saw the formation he knew exactly which play was coming. That has to give you confidence in the play calling…

Of course the players deserve some of the blame for such a bad loss, but I err on the side of placing too much blame on the staff. With the exception of Montgomery’s drops and Hogan’s interception at the end of the game, there weren’t that many mistakes by the players. And after its disappointingly slow start, you can’t ask for a much better performance than what the Stanford defense came up with.

Leaving the details of the loss aside, what makes the game even tougher to handle is the postseason fallout from the loss. Stanford now has two Pac-12 losses, so Oregon will almost certainly win the Pac-12 North and host the Pac-12 Championship Game. Barring anything crazy, that’ll put Oregon in the Rose Bowl. So as tough as its loss to Stanford may have seemed just over a week ago, Oregon won’t end up in too bad of a spot.

Stanford, however, now needs a lot of help to avoid ending up at the Alamo Bowl. There are 10 spots available in the BCS, but there isn’t much room for at-large bids. There are six conferences that automatically send their winner to the BCS, so that leaves only four spots. Then, if the rankings finish the way they are right now, either Northern Illinois or Fresno State will be an automatic qualifier for winning its conference and finishing ahead of another automatic qualifier (Central Florida in all likelihood).

With only three spots left, Stanford would have to compete against teams like Clemson, whoever finishes second in the SEC and a secondary team from the Big 12 or Big Ten for a chance to play in a BCS game.

With some bad luck, Stanford could get the short end of the stick and end up in San Antonio at the Alamo Bowl. After starting the season with so much promise and beating Oregon, that would be a disastrous ending that never should have come into play. But that’s what happens when you lose twice in college football.

Sam Fisher desperately does not want to go to San Antonio for his postseason broadcasting duties. Give him the city’s redeeming qualities at [email protected], and follow him on Twitter @SamFisher908

Sam Fisher is the managing editor of sports for The Stanford Daily's Vol. 244. Sam also does play-by-play for KZSU's coverage of Stanford football, Stanford baseball and Stanford women's basketball. In 2013, Sam co-authored "Rags to Roses: The Rise of Stanford Football," with Joseph Beyda and George Chen.

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